Monthly Market Update

March 2021

The Arrive Monthly Market Update, created by Arrive Insights, 一个报告是否分析来自多个来源的数据,包括但不限于 FreightWaves SONAR, DAT, FTR Transportation Intelligence, Morgan Stanley Research, Bank of America Internal Data, Journal of Commerce, Stephens Research, National Retail Federation and FRED Economic Data from the past month as well as year-over-year.  

贝博app体育西班牙知道市场数据对实时商业决策至关重要, and at Arrive Logistics, 贝博app体育西班牙致力于为您提供更好地管理您的货运所需的数据.

Executive Summary

贝博app体育西班牙的研究表明,由于需求前景改善和产能前景下降,未来几个月现货市场活跃和卡车成本高企的可能性增加. 下半年的前景取决于运营商是否有能力增加足够多的驱动和新设备,以应对不稳定的需求趋势.

严酷的冬季天气导致2月份需求波动,暴露出国内货运市场供应能力严重不足.

DAT reported 43.8% month-over-month and 161.2月份现货交易量同比增长9%, 这表明今年的趋势偏离了正常的季节性.

二月份,DAT干货车装载比增加到7.54岁,环比增长77%,同比增长310%. 冷藏货物与卡车的比率也迅速上升到15.91,环比增长95%,同比增长312%.

Elevated contract rates provided little to no protection against an extended disruption in the market. Spot rates, excluding fuel, climbed $0.27 per mile from Jan. to March.

卡车供应恢复的最大障碍是导致8级卡车生产延迟的半导体短缺和持续的驱动器可用性问题.

托运人可以确保一致的专用运力, high volume lanes, 在未来的一年里,他们会对自己的交通支出有最大的控制权吗.

经济的改善和正常的季节性趋势,如农产品和夏季旺季,应会继续支持未来几个月健康的需求趋势.

疫苗接种后的消费模式表明,被压抑的旅游和娱乐需求将导致消费群体的转变, and fluctuations in demand are likely to further disrupt the freight market late in the second quarter.

Truckload Demand

Inconsistent demand trends continued to be the driving force behind the volatility in the freight market in February. 在南方各州肆虐的冬季暴风雪是一个明显的转折点,从今年早些时候的通缩状况转变为贝博app体育西班牙在过去几周看到的通胀趋势. 二月通常是一年中货运最慢的月份, 但有几个因素导致了今年出现的这种不同寻常的模式. 港口积压的货物以进口的形式提供了源源不断的货物, and the winter storms have sparked a surge of demand for the recovery efforts and replenishment of empty store shelves. 整个3月的第一周都没有放缓的迹象, 随着需求的激增,本已产能有限的市场继续面临压力.

FreightWaves SONAR Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI), 哪些衡量所有模式下的合同货运量, 2月28日同比上涨了近60%. 重要的是要注意,OTVI包括接受和拒绝装载投标, 因此,贝博app体育西班牙必须用相应的外标拒收指数(OTRI)对该指数进行折现,以揭示接受投标量的真实衡量标准. 如果贝博app体育西班牙将这一方法应用于每年的OTVI值, the increase in volume drops to 22.9%. 这与10天前相比是一个巨大的增长, 而OTRI调整后的成交量指数仅上升3.由于飓风造成的关闭,汽车销量同比下降了9%. The Dry Van and Reefer Tender Volume Indices were also up more than 59% and 84% year-over-year at the end of the month, which only equated to 23.1% and 8.两种模式的实际体积分别增加了5%. Dry Van和Reefer的投标量在2月份经历了类似的波动后,在3月初仍保持上升.

DAT reported that dry van spot load posts increased significantly in February, increasing by 43.同比增长162%. 随着市场趋紧,现货交易量在整个月继续攀升, 由于风暴导致需求放缓,当月最后一周需求激增,增幅达到24%.

FTR和Truckstop的全模式现货成交量指数上升了50.与1月份的高点相比为0%,与去年同期相比为157%. The index grew exponentially, climbing by 2%, 4%, 14% and 25% in weeks one through four, respectively. This type of growth is more significant than the increase associated with the pandemic in 2020. 这一模式与DAT 2月现货数据显示的趋势一致,并为本月最后一周的影响提供了进一步证据. Dry Van现货成交量指数(Dry Van Spot Volume Index)环比上涨88%,同比上涨296%, and the Reefer Spot Volume Index is up 83% month-over-month and 218% year-over-year in February.

FTR的卡车装载指数仅上升了1.2月份同比增长了0.7% month-over-month from January. 2020年,卡车装载指数下降-0.同期的月环比增长了6%, 这表明今年的趋势偏离了正常的季节性. 

 

 

Truckload Supply

2月份,卡车货运供应变得极为紧张. 需求波动导致现货交易量激增,因为冬季的暴风雪使运力网络失去平衡. TX一些地区的入市流量受到重创, LA, AR and Memphis, TN相对于这些地点的出库量都有所增加. This trend is resulting in more trucks building up in these areas than there are loads to get them out. This is similar to the volume disparity seen across different shipper industries as the pandemic lockdowns took hold. 在一个容量处于微妙平衡的市场里, 这种规模的破坏确实可以改变局面.

声纳出站投标拒绝指数(OTRI)衡量的是承运人拒绝接受合同要求的货物的比率. This index tends to follow the changes of  spot freight activity — the higher the tender rejections, the higher the spot volumes. The trends seen in February are consistent with the fluctuations seen in spot volumes reported by the DAT and Truckstop, spiking in back half of the month. Tender rejections were as low as 20.2月9日是75%,但后来攀升至27.87% by February 22nd.The index currently sits at 27.40%,同比增长超过370%.

不同设备类型的趋势是一致的. 目前,拒绝干式货车投标的人数为27人.13%, up about 375% year-over-year. 冷藏招标被拒绝的数量目前为47件.71%, an increase of 328% year-over-year.

OTRI climbed to 27.87% late in February after falling to 20.75%, a value not seen since August. Van和Reefer招标拒收均在月底出现,这是由于冬季风暴造成的中断.

DAT装载与载重比衡量的是装载的总数量与载重板上载重的总数量的比较. 2月份,干货车与卡车的装载比迅速上升到7.54,环比增长77%,同比增长310%. 冷藏货物与卡车的比率也迅速上升到15.2月份同比增长312%,环比增长95%.

整个月的周载重比都在增加, 这进一步证明,随着本月接近尾声,由于严重的冬季风暴,现货市场紧张加剧. 2月份载重比的上升不仅是不正常的, 但这一比例比2018年任何时候都要高. 所有迹象都表明,这一趋势将持续到3月份. 预计需求将继续保持高水平, 对市场上的可用产能造成持续的压力.

Van和Reefer的L/T比率在最后一周飙升之前,整个月都在下降.

摩根士丹利干货车运价指数(Morgan Stanley Dry Van Freight Index)是衡量相对供应的另一个指标. 指数越高,市场状况越紧张. 该指数表明,2月份的产能大幅收紧, climbing to the highest level seen since January of 2018 when the ELD mandate went into effect. Their forecast indicates that the market will reach peak tightness in June before cooling off later in the year. This forecast is bullish and seems to indicate relatively flat growth between now and the end of the year, 在经历了整个环境的剧烈波动之后.

The Truckstop/FTR Market Demand Index measures the ratio of available loads to available trucks. In the first two sets of charts below, 对干式货车和冷藏箱货物,分别绘制了负载和卡车可用性图. Load availability increased, remaining up year-over-year, while truck availability decreased and remained down year-over-year for both equipment types. This imbalance is indicative of further tightening market conditions as demand has remained elevated above supply. 总体市场需求指数环比增长66%,同比增长376%.

Truckload Rates

Van and reefer spot rates increased rapidly in January as tender rejections and spot activity picked up late in the month. Dry van spot rates increased by 1.7% from $2.36 per mile in January to $2.40 in February. 这是一种误导,因为利率上涨了12%以上,相当于零美元.33 per mile, from January to the first week in March, 这是本月末利率攀升速度有多快的一个迹象. 合同费率也在继续攀升,又涨了0美元.自今年1月以来,每英里收费为18美元,这使得总收费从1美元增加到30%.97 to $2.56 since May 2020. 

The dry van linehaul rate per mile of $2.3月第一周的房价同比上涨了44%. 这是卡车运输费的历史新高,零美元.比之前的历史最高纪录2美元每英里高了23美元.46 in December 2020.

合约-现货货车利率差已反转回- 0美元.13 per mile in March after trending at $0.02 per mile in Jan and Feb.

Elevated contract rates provided little to no protection against an extended disruption in the market. Spot rates soared, 随着产能不足以支撑需求的激增和波动,合约利率进一步提高. 这是冬季风暴破坏的直接结果,也证明了供需之间的平衡是多么的敏感.

Capacity Outlook

运力是使市场重新向承运人有利方向倾斜的关键. 很明显,即使合同利率处于历史最高水平, 需求继续推动现货市场的涨落. 8级卡车生产的挑战和持续的司机可用性问题仍然是卡车货运供应复苏的最大障碍. Until these issues are resolved, 贝博app体育西班牙预计需求波动将导致市场环境高度不稳定.

The growing disparity between driver supply and truckload demand resulted in increasing pressure on driver availability. The chart below shows FTR’s forecast for truck driver pressure peaking in Q2-2021 and remaining elevated through 2022. This supports the outlook that capacity constraints will continue to drive unpredictable rate environments. 有能力确保始终如一的专用运力的托运人, high volume lanes, 在未来的一年里,他们会对自己的交通支出有最大的控制权吗.

Active truck utilization, 积极从事货运的坐式卡车所占的份额, 现在预测在6月和7月最高达到100%, holding at 98% through Q3, 直到2022年才会回落到可观的97%. 这一预测已得到加强,原因是人们对货运量将保持强劲的预期有所改善,司机运力吃紧的问题只得到最小程度的缓解.

FTR报告称,2月份新卡车订单增至4.38万辆,同比增长11辆.月环比增长9%,同比增长245%. 这将是连续第六个月新订单超过20份,维持目前的产能水平需要000个单位. Typically, 这将是产能正在复苏的一个有力指标, 但生产卡车运行所需的微芯片所需的半导体出现短缺,导致新芯片的交付延迟. 目前,许多车型的交付预计被推迟到2022年.

Volume Outlook

The outlook for demand remains strong. Normal seasonal trends should result in increasing demand as spring produce season gets underway. 新屋开工数处于2006年以来的最高水平, which should mean healthy volumes for building materials and goods related to housing construction. Longer term, pent up demand could give the economy a strong boost as vaccinations continue to allow for the return to normal life.

工业生产继续小幅增长,但仍在下降.8% year-over-year. Despite small improvements, 未来几个月,随着疫苗的分发,与病毒相关的封锁和劳动力短缺得到缓解,仍有增长空间.

FTR最新的卡车装载量预测显示,多数主要大宗商品类别的前景更为强劲, 导致2021年货运前景显著走强. The forecast shows a continued increase in monthly truck loadings resulting in a total increase of 7.8% for the full year, up from 6.2% a month ago.

预计库存补充将是2021年卡车负载需求的主要贡献者. More than 22 million twenty foot equivalent units of retail imports in 2020 set a new annual record, 加上港口积压的船只, 贝博app体育西班牙预计,在第三季度或更长的时间内,进口仍将保持强劲. 依赖进口原材料生产或进口补充库存的托运人应设法进行调整. Taking steps to simplify product offerings, 为订购模式建立更多的交付时间, or even looking for alternatives near-shore or on-shore are all options to combat congestion at the ports.

今年中国新年(CNY)的影响很小,因为由于港口积压和有限的吞吐量,生产放缓被掩盖了. 进口通常在2月底下降,但一直保持不变, 提供稳定的入境货运. 这将支持洛杉矶到2021年底的健康出库量.

Economic Indicators and Consumer Sentiment

美国银行(Bank of America)的消费者支出数据为不断变化的消费者行为和支出模式提供了可见性. 在2月份的支出数据中出现了几个故事.

At a high level, 整个2月份,消费者支出继续呈同比增长趋势. 截至2月27日的7天内,信用卡消费总额同比增长7%. 贝博app体育西班牙继续看到耐用品和在线零售支出同比强劲增长,旅游等服务支出下降, 娱乐和在实体店消费. 如果支出继续同比增长, 这将支持持续的经济增长和健康的卡车载货需求.

The impact from the winter storms is leading to elevated spending in the areas most impacted. Total spending in TX, LA, OK, MS, AR and TN fell to -25% year-over-year before increasing to +6.截至本月末,这一比例为5%,仍高于未受影响的州. Elevated spending in these states is resulting in an increase in inbound truckload demand to these areas. 如果由于长期的复苏,这些领域的支出继续上升, 这可能足以使供需失衡, 导致产能持续受限,现货市场活跃.

Lastly, we have begun to get an idea of what post-vaccine spending behaviors could look like. 在年龄在73-92岁之间的传统主义者中,消费趋势从美国的那个年代开始增加.S. 65岁以上的人开始接种疫苗. 这一群体的机票消费尤其激增. 这提供了一些证据表明,一旦疫苗接种变得更加普遍, 贝博app体育西班牙可能会看到消费篮子的另一个转变. 目前尚不清楚这将对卡车装载需求产生正面还是负面影响, 但正如贝博app体育西班牙在过去一年看到的其他趋势, 任何有意义的需求变化都可能对产能产生紧缩效应. We believe that the pent up demand for travel and entertainment will result in further capacity disruptions, even if total demand remains consistent, 由于运营商网络将被迫再次调整自身.

尽管联邦经济刺激法案正在国会协商中, 目前还没有贝博app体育西班牙该法案何时生效的最新消息. 然而,时间是至关重要的.4 million workers will lose their unemployment benefits between mid-March and mid-April if no new bill is passed. We will be watching this closely, 因为任何重大刺激措施都可能对卡车需求产生积极影响.

失业趋势继续令人担忧, improving only slightly throughout February and continuing on their flat trend over the past few quarters. Initial claims in the most recent week came in at 745,000, and continued claims are more than 4.2 million on a weekly basis.

Company UPdate

arrival Logistics收购了Forager的跨境业务. Forager is a cross-border technology company focused on Mexico and Canadian cross-border freight.